"Where Have All the Germans Gone?"
A commentary by Paul Kieffer
Pastor of United Church of God congregations in Germany
With an adjustment of one word, the 1960s-era protest song "Where Have
All the Flowers Gone?" provides an apt description of a growing crisis
in central Europe. The Germans are slowly but surely dying out, prompting
the German weekly new magazine Der Spiegel to highlight the
issue as its first cover story for 2004.
The demographic situation in nearly all Western European countries is
a challenge. Social security in these countries—primarily the national
healthcare and retirement systems—has always been based on the
traditional demographic "pyramid." That pyramid has a smaller, older
segment of the population at the top, with a large base of younger people
at the bottom. According to the traditional model, the large base of
younger, employed people contribute enough to the social security system
to provide benefits for the older, retired generation.
However, the traditional demographic model is no longer reality in Western
Europe. The crisis is considered greatest in Germany, where the current
statistical birth rate of 1.4 children born per adult woman is well below
the level of 2.2 considered needed to maintain a stable population. Of
the approximately 82 million people living in Germany today, 75 million
are German, the rest are foreigners. At the dawn of the new millennium,
25 percent of Germany's population was already over 60 years of age.
Demographic projections over the next 50 years have serious implications
for the German economy and social security system. The number of Germans
in the 20- to 40-year-old age bracket as a portion of the total population
will continue to shrink. The current low birth rate is projected to continue
well into the future with no turnaround in sight. As a result, the number
of Germans will continue to decline to an estimated 55 million by the
middle of this century. What a contrast to just 100 years ago, when Germany's
population increased rapidly in the 40 years following the Franco-German
war of 1871!
The consequences for Germany's economy and social systems are serious.
In the early 1990s, the expenses for one pensioner were being financed
by three wage-earners. By 2030 the ratio is projected to be one to one.
Obviously, the current level of pension benefits cannot be maintained
without major changes in the tax structure.
With fewer people, Germany's domestic market will continue to shrink,
with the decline currently estimated to be 1 percent annually. Germany's
dependence on exports to fuel its economy will continue to grow. Exports
already account for one third of the country's gross national product.
This, in turn, will make Germany's economy even more sensitive to currency
exchange rates, trade issues and disputes, most notably between the European
Union and the United States.
Could immigration provide a solution to Germany's declining population?
The question continues to be debated in Germany among politicians and
demographic experts. Some experts support relaxed immigration rules for
foreigners with high educational levels or technical skills. Germany's
conservative sister parties, however, have successfully used the immigration
issue to gain votes among Germans convinced that there are already too
many foreigners living in their country.
An interesting development related to the declining birth rate are concerns
about Germany's future ability to fulfill its obligations within the
NATO alliance. The size of the Bundeswehr, Germany's postwar
army, is already about 25 percent less than it was during the height
of the Cold War.
The population-related challenges Germany faces are common to nearly
all countries in Western Europe today. They emphasize that the era of
dominant nation-states in Europe could soon be over. In the foreseeable
future no single country will be able to dominate the entire continent
as France and Germany have done in the past.
Instead, Europe's future is now irrevocably linked to the success–or
failure–of the European Union. That union, arising out of an historic
agreement signed in Rome in 1957, will have an impact on the course of
world events far beyond what any single European nation could have or
even has had in the past. It will affect those who live well beyond its
borders, even in the United States.
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