Iran's Nuclear Threat-How Real Is It?
A commentary by Cecil Maranville
United Church of God elder in Glendale, Arizona
Preventing Iran from producing nuclear weapons is
one of the most pressing issues facing the world today. America's
President Bush bluntly denounced Iran's sponsorship of terror in
his State of the Union address, encouraging the Iranian people to "stand
for liberty."
Meanwhile the EU is attempting to negotiate Iran away from its nuclear
ambitions through a generous package of economic benefits—which
that struggling nation needs desperately. For the time being, the U.S.
and the EU appear to be working together to try to resolve the situation
through diplomatic channels. But the U.S. administration refuses to rule
out the option of taking military action to prevent Iran from joining
the nuclear club.
Would Americans back their president if Mr. Bush declared a need to
go to war to prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons? No one knows
with certainty. He would have a hard sell without clear and irrefutable
prove that it was necessary to do so, but he has sternly warned the U.S.
will never allow Iran to go nuclear.
A wild card in this game of nuclear brinksmanship is the possibility
that Israel could act preemptively as it did in Iraq by bombing that
country's Osirak reactor before it went "hot" in 1981.
There are shadowy rumors that the U.S. might turn a blind eye if Israel
acted or even "unofficially" encourage it to do so.
For its part, Iran claims that its nuclear development program is entirely
its private business because it intends only to generate electricity
through nuclear power. But that claim fails to explain why a nation with
over 10 percent of the world's oil reserves has such a desperate
need for an alternative power supply.
This inadequate claim—because the paths to nuclear power generation
and nuclear weaponry development are identical—makes it next to
impossible to take the Iranian government's word at face value.
By reserving the right to take military action if necessary, it appears
that the U.S. wants to keep the Iranians off guard by vague comments
that there are no plans to attack Iran but at the same time warning that "all
options are on the table."
Concurrent with its work on a nuclear reactor, Iran's aerospace
industry has been perfecting a missile that could deliver payloads throughout
the Middle East and beyond. Their principal weapon is the Shahab-3 ("Shahab" means, "shooting
star" in Farsi; some spell it, "Shihab"). As recently
as a year ago, any threat from this highly inaccurate "flying aluminum
tube" was minimal. Even if it could have targeted someplace in
Iraq or Israel, it would have had to bombard an entire city in the hopes
of striking a military target. The political ramifications of destroying
a large population center rendered its use unlikely.
But Iran's current nuclear delivery system is vastly improved.
An American GPS (Global Positioning Satellite) system sold with the approval
of the Clinton Administration to the Chinese Air Force in the mid-1990s "found
its way" to Iran and is now guiding their ICBMs with a high degree
of accuracy.
Additionally, Iran has benefited significantly from North Korean know-how,
both in nuclear and missile technology. Today Iranian missiles could
conceivably strike Israeli military bases or American bases in Iraq,
Qatar and elsewhere in the region. Their longest-range weapons are now
capable of hitting targets even in London and throughout Europe.
Iran was a strategic hazard before, when it's only weapons were
its oil production and its control of the Persian Gulf sea-lanes through
the Straits of Hormuz. Now, however, on the brink of going nuclear with
a workable delivery system, Iran is a very real threat to the world and
a close ally of a confrontational North Korea and an unpredictable China.
The apostle Paul wrote, "But know this, that in the last days perilous times will
come" (2 Timothy 3:1). That is clearly the state of the world today.
Dedicated statesmen from most nations are working feverishly to avoid
an unexpected provocation from igniting a global nuclear conflict.
But at some point a worldwide conflict will be ignited. Jesus Christ
warned that just prior to His second coming "... there will be
great distress, unequaled from the beginning of the world until
now—and never to be equaled again" (Matthew 24:21,
NIV). So destructive will that conflict be that He said, "If
those days had not been cut short, no one would survive, but for
the sake of the elect those days will be shortened" (verse 22, compare
Daniel 12:1-3).
 Are
we in the lull before the storm that Jesus predicted? For a clear evaluation
of where present world tensions might lead, request or download our informative
booklet: The Middle East
in Bible Prophecy.
|
