The New Germany

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The New Germany

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In the aftermath of Sunday’s elections in Germany the cloud is beginning to lift to reveal the outlines of what might be expected from Europe’s largest and most powerful nation. Most observers are seeing it won’t be business as usual.

Germany has shed its socialist leadership in favor of a more growth oriented, business focused, conservative government. One European headline calls Chancellor Angela Merkel the “new Margaret Thatcher”. If so, it will be very interesting to follow the emergence of a Tuetonic “Iron Lady”.

Look for a stronger foreign policy stance. Germany has had to take a back seat to the United States during the Cold War period and afterwards. Circumstances on the continent dictate Germany taking a more direct hand in shaping relations with Russia and China. Energy will be the primary factor here. Russian oil and natural gas keep the homes warm and fuels the economy.

Energy management and creation will be a priority. Look for Germany to become a broker of energy for neighboring states. This would be a potentially powerful position for Germany.

Look for the new government to push for the removal of nuclear warheads from German soil. Not only would this gain favor from Russia but lead to Germany assessing it own security interests. The Obama administration has made it clear it wants to focus on domestic matters more than its international role. Events may allow this to develop, thus requiring the EU, with Germany driving the bus, to assume a larger role in any vacuum. Here is how Stratfor sums up the scene:

Germany is awake. It is thinking for itself. It has its own policy preferences, its own energy preferences and its own security preferences. It already is showing signs of developing autonomy in foreign policy and energy matters, and it is very likely only a matter of time before it starts developing autonomy in security matters.

This isn’t your father’s (or even your grandfather’s) Germany. This is your great-grandfather’s Germany.

Now more than ever is the time to be carefully watching developments in Europe.