Since Israel became a state in 1948 it has been besieged by its Arab neighbors. They must take each threat seriously, there is no margin of error for their  existence. Its current threat from Iran is similar to what they faced in 1967. In the spring of that year Egypt's President Gamal Abdul Nasser evicted United Nations peacekeepers closed shipping lanes and called on all Arabs to "throw the Jews into the sea." 

Israeli troops were on high alert. To obtain support for a preemptive strike the Israeli  government sent its Foreign Minister, Abba Eban, to Washington to confer with President Lyndon Johnson. In 1967 the Vietnam War was raging and not going well for America. Johnson was losing domestic political support for the war and could offer the Israelis no firm support other than a pledge to rally international support, which he was not able to do. Johnson's operative phrase was, "Israel will not be alone unless it decides to go it alone." No one could quite decipher was was meant by the statement. Within a few weeks, on June 5, Israel attacked Egypt. Soon Jordan and Syria joined in against Israel and the famous six Day War was on. When it ended Israel was in control of the Sinai, Golan Heights and the West Bank including the Old City of Jerusalem. the map of the Middle East was redrawn by that war and still impacts today's scene.

Ehud Olmert, and the State of Israel may be in the same position today. We do not know what kind of message he got from the White House this week but it is an eerily similar situation. President Bush is mired in a war in Iraq and rapidly losing domestic support for the war. He is not in a position to give Israel a go ahead for a preemptive strike against Iran. Yet Israel cannot wait to see if Iran is just developing a nuclear capacity for peaceful energy purposes. that does not seem likely given Iran's large oil reserves.

America is not getting the international support for sanctions against Iran. China and Russia are blocking stringent moves in the U.N. Security Council. Japan, America's staunchest Asian ally is even reticent about this since it depends heavily on Iran for oil. Like Lyndon Johnson in 1967 President Bush is not finding strong international support for his avowed desire to prevent Iran from going nuclear.

What would be the result of an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities?  Michael Oren, a Senior Fellow at the Shalem Center in Jerusalem, wrote in yesterday's Wall Street Journal (sub required) that such an attack would have far reaching consequences:
 

An Israeli strike at Iran's nuclear facilities could well have a similar impact, especially as Mr. Ahmadinejad and the mullahs are certain to react violently.

Mr. Olmert and his government must consider such consequences as they decide on Israel's next moves. The ramifications of that decision are certain to affect America as well. Many Arabs to this day believe that the U.S. was complicit in the Six-Day War, and even that American pilots flew Israeli planes. Such rumors will again be rife if Israel attacks Iran, and especially if Israeli jets pass through Iraq's American-controlled airspace. Israel may indeed act alone, but in the minds of a great many people in the Middle East, the U.S. acts with it.

After battling Hezblollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, this past summer is Israel ready to launch a strike against Iran?  I 'll discuss that in part three of this series.