Sabbath Thought - Survivor Bias

In WW2 the tide began to turn against the Nazi war machine when the Allies were able to make consistent bombing runs deep into German territory.  Many bombers didn't make it back (bomber crews had the highest mortality rate of any other group of soldiers), but those that did make it back often looked like this diagram.  The repair crews of these planes would make note of where the damage was from anti-aircraft fire (the red dots in the image).

What does this image tell you?  At first, military officials wanted to reinforce the damaged area of these planes, because the thought was those areas were vulnerable since they had so much damage.  That thinking changed when a Hungarian Jewish mathematician named Abraham Wald pointed out that these planes made it home with this damage - the planes should be armored in the areas not marked in the diagram because the planes that didn't make it home were hit in those areas.

This is a logic error called "survivor bias".  The military officials were focusing on those that survived rather than those who did not.  This was the evidence before them, but they missed the whole picture.  They focused on what was in front of them, but not what was missing.

Where are the holes in your armor?  Have you been hit financially this past year?  Health challenges may have surfaced that rocked you or your loved ones.  Maybe you have endured a bad boss or job challenges.  Perhaps you were attacked spiritually more than physically - a relationship that became broken, rumors spread about you, or just fear or doubt about your calling.  Those types of hits are like the red dots on the diagram above.  It can be easy to think those dots show where we are weak, but they actually show where we are strong in God.  We were hit (maybe multiple times) hard, but we survived and we are still in the fight.

We all have holes where Satan, life, and the world has hit us.  We need to be careful not to have our own survivor bias.  Those holes actually show us were we are strong in God, so we need to make sure to armor the areas we are not noticing hits.  Those areas are the truly vulnerable areas of our life.  When we are hit in those areas we feel blindsided, and we can feel shaken to our core - but it doesn't have to mean that we are done for.  A hit, even in a vulnerable area, does not need to be a critical or catastrophic hit.

We are to put on the whole armor of God (Ephesians 6:10-17) - not just for the areas that are noticeable.  This Sabbath is perfect time to consider were we are vulnerable, and then to make a plan.  Self-examination is an on-going task, not just before Passover.  Take this day to realize you are winning in the spiritual war you are a part of.  Make a plan to address areas of your life where God has shown you are not as strong as you need to be. 

This day is a day to rejoice in because with our spiritual armor, we are not only survivors, but victors in our calling through Jesus Christ! 

I wish you a profitable and value filled Sabbath,

Dan Dowd

6 September, 2019