As the International Herald Tribune reports, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda recently became the most senior Tokyo official to open the door to nuclear weapons. Fukuda said Japan's "peace constitution" does not rule out nuclear weapons. The times have "changed to the point that even revising the constitution is being talked about," he noted. "Depending upon the world situation, circumstances and public opinion could require Japan to possess nuclear weapons" ("So Much for Japan's Nuclear Taboo," Robyn Lim, June 13, 2002, www.iht.com/articles/61117.htm ).

In 1998 North Korea tested a long-range missile over Japan. It is believed North Korea possesses nuclear capability. China has nuclear weapons targeted on Japan. All this has Japan rethinking prior commitments to abstain from the nuclear club. Japan's policy here is based on three principles, "that it cannot make or possess nuclear weapons, or allow them to be introduced into the country" (ibid.).

One of the rules of international politics is that things change. A nation must always put its own interests ahead of others if it is to survive. As long as Japan chooses to be protected under the American nuclear umbrella, it will likely not choose to arm itself with weapons of mass destruction. If Japan chooses another option, then to survive in its hostile neighborhood it may see no other alternative than to go nuclear.

Adding to potential instability is another recent report that China is negotiating to buy eight submarines from Russia. This would increase their tactical ability to blockade Taiwan and challenge U.S. naval supremacy in the seas near China (International Herald Tribune, June 25, 2002, www.iht.com/articles/62411.html).

Such a deal would "very significantly enhance" the Chinese navy's "ability to influence events in the East China Sea," said Bernard Cole, an expert on the Chinese navy at the National War College in Washington, D.C. How? "First, by enforcing a blockade against Taiwan, if Beijing adopts that course of action, and also by posing a serious problem for opposing naval forces attempting to operate in the area. No part of naval warfare is more difficult than detecting, localizing or neutralizing submarines" (ibid.).

Since Taiwan broke with Communist China in 1949, the mainland has sought to reconnect their "lost brothers." One of the main pillars of American foreign policy has been its pledge to protect Taiwan's sovereignty. Conversely, China has sought to remove American influence from the region and will stop at nothing to accomplish this geopolitical imperative.

Despite its military deficiencies, compared to America's technological superiority, China continues to move ahead with plans to become the dominant Asian power. China's impact in this region will continue to grow in the coming years. How this will affect American interests and other international relations will be an important area to watch.