In Brief... Russia Calls on Japan and Germany For Economic Help

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In Brief... Russia Calls on Japan and Germany For Economic Help

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GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE: (SNS) - The Russians have mounted a full-court press focused on Germany and Japan. They have had no luck pleading with the Americans directly on economic issues. They have now focused their attention on two key American partners who also are extremely vulnerable in their own ways.

The Japanese are vulnerable economically, given their lack of recovery from financial problems. The Russians are carrying this message to the Japanese: unless Western help is forthcoming, Russia's economy will continue to worsen, undermining the prospects of a global economic recovery. Therefore, the Japanese have a serious interest in advocating the Russian position to the Americans. Moreover, unless the Japanese succeed in this task, they can forget about recovering Japanese islands occupied by the Russians at the end of World War II.

The Russians were delivering a more geopolitical message to the Germans. The Germans badly want stability along the territory running from the Baltics to the Balkans. They are more directly affected by instability in these regions than any other major power. They have made enormous investments in this region as well as huge investments in Russia.

Russia is letting Germany know that more than investments are at stake in this region. Russia is in a position to destabilize the entire region. This would lead to increased German dependence on the United States for stability, to Germany being forced to intervene in the region on its own or in concert with other European nations, or to the acceptance of instability and tension in its own back yard. None of these options appeal to the Germans. That is what the Russians are counting on.

During this past week recent press reports began to surface to the effect that Russia and its partner Belarus were supplying arms to Iraq. Similar reports have been surfacing for a while, but their frequency and prominence are increasing. There is little doubt in our minds that Russian and Belarussian weaponry is reaching Iraq.

On another front Russia has long been worried about Turkish intentions in the Caucuses, particularly among the Moslem nations in the region. Moscow has been increasingly close to Armenia, a non-Moslem antagonist to Turkey. In recent weeks, Russia began delivering S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Armenia, in a dramatic increase in weaponry certain to alarm Armenia's neighbors.

Such tactics are reminiscent of the Cold War. This time Russia's emphasis is not only the United States, but Japan and Germany as well.