70th Anniversary of World War II

Today marks the seventieth anniversary of the start of World War II. Ceremonies will be held in Poland to mark the event.

Most leaders gathered for the event will be looking forward rather than backward. Russia will attend and is seeking to extend its influence among those countries, like Poland, who were former tied to the Soviet Union. Russia desires to rebuild influence with Poland, Ukraine and Belarus. There is a lull in America’s attention to this region–although that might change as pressure to bring sanctions against Iran continue to mount.

Here is a comment from Stratfor today:

Officials in Moscow know there is only limited time before Washington’s focus returns to Russia, and that now is the time to solidify Russian influence in the former Soviet states and then neutralize or partner with states just beyond that sphere. Once the United States decides to counter Russia, things will get messy on the European geopolitical battlefield once again.

But for now, it seems Russia is making some progress in its roll back across Europe. A question we are considering in Russia’s resurgence is how much longer the United States will allow Russia a window of opportunity. Washington has a full plate right now – with issues including Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan — but the Americans are aware of Moscow’s moves in the former Soviet region. The next thing to watch for is whether Poland can maintain a neutralized position between Russia and Germany — two countries that historically have invaded Poland in the process of invading each other.

If Poland can be neutralized and the United States’ influence in Europe remains low, what will Russia’s next move be? Which countries are next on Moscow’s list as it seeks to rebuild influence in the region? These are questions that many Baltic and Central European countries will be asking on the 70th anniversary of World War II.