Benedict XIV Not Likely to Reign for Long

There are many predictions on what direction Benedict will take the church. Some say he will carry on in the policies and traditions of John Paul II. (But he would need to have the personality and temperament of John Paul II, which he doesn't have. Through no fault of his own, Benedict is a less attractive personality.) Analysts also point to his choice of a name, for Benedict, which means "blessing" and may indicate that he sees himself following in the tradition of Benedict XV, who attempted to pour oil on the pre-World War I tensions. (See the current United Church of God Web commentary, Challenges Facing Pope Benedict XVI.)

But Benedict XVI may not do much more than hold the papacy for the next pope. His older brother, Georg Ratzinger, also a priest, told the press that he was utterly shocked at Benedict's selection to be the new pope. Ratzinger cited Benedict's frail constitution and his poor health. The pope had a hemorrhagic stroke in 1991.

The Vatican isn't talking about this, but it never does comment on the health of the pope. It didn't even acknowledge that John Paul II had Parkinson's disease until after his death.

So, don't look for Benedict to accomplish much. He isn't likely to live long. The College of Cardinals may have simply made what seemed like a safe temporary choice in selecting him, but they probably will be back in Rome for another conclave before very long.

See Benedict's Age, Health Prompt Concern from the Guardian Unlimited online edition.