Eight Years on From 9/11

While the world changed for time after the 9/11 attacks things have now returned to more of the norm in relations between nations.

Russia and America became allies in the fight against a common threat of Islamic terrorists. Forgotten now is the critical help Russia afforded American troops in the first surge into Afghanistan to root out embedded terrorists. Although al Qaeda has now been reduced to operating in smaller regional theaters there is the larger threat of Iran and its development of nuclear weapons that threatens the Middle East and Europe. Stratfor comments today on this:

The United States threatened key Russian interests in Ukraine by supporting the Orange Revolution in 2004, while Iran has felt threatened by the U.S. presence in Iraq — moving ahead with its nuclear program in response. Interests in Afghanistan still converge, in a relative sense — neither Tehran nor Moscow really wants to see U.S. troops leave, which would create a possibility for al Qaeda to regenerate – but globally, Russia, Iran and the United States have divergent interests.

And this brings us back to pondering what really changed, after 9/11, in the way the world works. Certainly in the immediate aftermath of the attacks, nation-states felt threatened by the emergence of a transnational, non-state actor. They coalesced into an alliance to repulse that threat. However, as soon as al Qaeda militants fled from the caves of Tora Bora and had to concentrate more on hiding than attacking, the world reverted to its default setting: Nation-states have interests, these interests diverge and conflict ensues. This is the reality of great power politics.

And this is why, on the eighth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, al Qaeda remains a marginal threat — while the world braces for a showdown between the United States, Russia, Iran and, potentially, Israel.

September is shaping up to be a critical period for the future of the Iranian game.