Exit President Putin, Enter Prime Minister Putin

Nov 1, 2007
9 minutes read time

Russian President Putin must leave office early next year. Yet his policies and his posture are those of a man building an empire, rather than merely a legacy. It’s clear he intends to hang onto power. What does this mean for the EU, the United States, China and Southern Asia?

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When Presidents Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev held the famous 1986 summit in Reykjavik that began the end of the Cold War, a major in the Russian KGB named Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was quietly going about recruiting spies in East Germany. He passionately believed in the Soviet Union, convinced that Communism could and should have modernized it. But being a politician was the furthest thing from his mind. "[To be a politician] one had to be insincere and promise something which you cannot fulfill. So you either have to be a fool who does not understand what you are promising, or deliberately be lying" (Putin in 1998 interview, quoted by David Hoffman, "Putin's Career Rooted in Russia's KGB," Washington Post Foreign Service, Jan. 30, 2000, p. A1). Putin was recruited for the KGB out of college. He spent 17 years as a mid-level agent in foreign intelligence, rising to the rank of lieutenant colonel. He left the KGB in 1991 to work as an aide to the first post-Soviet elected mayor in St. Petersburg, a job he fulfilled with purposeful anonymity. From St. Petersburg, he went to Moscow in 1996 to a series of jobs that propelled him with startling speed to the premiership and then, the presidency. His first job was on the Kremlin staff; then he was named head of the Federal Security Service (successor to the KGB). Boris Yeltsin appointed him prime minister in 1999, resigning shortly thereafter, making Putin acting president. Putin was elected to his first full term as president in March 2000 and reelected in 2004. Initially, he appeared to continue putting Russia on the path toward becoming a Western-style democracy. But as the Russian economy recovered its muscle, he began steering the country back under powerful Kremlin control. One illustration is the federalizing of regional governors. When a botched terrorist takeover of a school in Beslan in 2004 resulted in the death of over 350 people, 156 of them children, Putin declared it an attack on the entire country. Shortly thereafter, in the name of national security, he suspended the then decade-long practice of electing governors, declaring that the Kremlin would appoint them throughout the country. President Bush has taken a pounding from critics for his statements about "looking into Putin's soul and seeing someone I can work with" in June 2001. Bush wasn't entirely wrong; Washington indeed could work with Putin at the time, for Russia's economy was still so weak that it needed the United States. But Bush was wrong about Putin's "soul" or heart. The Russian president's heart belonged then, as it does now, to Mother Russia. The BBC's Caroline Frost accurately assessed the man's character in a 2004 profile: "Shadowy bureaucrat turned assured world leader, Putin talks of market democracy and capitalist western values. But his early life was spent in the former Soviet Union, and he looks back fondly on this time of state control. Political pundits wonder when the real Putin will reveal himself" ("Vladimir Putin: The Mysterious President," July 4, 2004, www.bbc.co.uk/bbcfour, emphasis added). A tangled scheme to retain power The man who disdained politics and politicians now yearns to retain a hold on the chief political office of the nation. By law, he can't stand for a third consecutive term as president, but the constitution doesn't bar him from running for the office again in 2012. However, a bizarre formula for him to remain Russia's leader is now taking shape. Kremlin watchers have been speculating for some time on how he might do this. Some thought he would change the constitution, allowing him to run for a third term. Putin himself expressed a desire to see the presidential term expanded from the current four years to as many as seven years, but denied that he would seek to change it before his term ends. Others thought that Putin would nominate someone who would continue his approach and policies. His popularity is so strong (in the 80 percent range) that the man he nominates for the presidency is virtually assured election. It appeared that Putin might be moving to that end by appointing Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov, two strong politicians, to the rank of first deputy prime minister, which essentially put them in the running for the presidency. However, this could backfire, as an independently strong leader isn't likely to share power with Putin; plus, a strong man might not find it easy to step down for Putin to run for president in 2012. But in September, Putin appointed Viktor Zubkov, a longtime adviser, as Russia's prime minister. Unlike other likely presidential candidates, Zubkov doesn't have a strong political base apart from Putin. Why would Putin choose Zubkov over others? "Analysts say that the Russian leader could in theory leave the presidency for a brief period, during which time the Kremlin would be run by a handpicked ally. Then he could return for a third term in snap elections" (Sebastian Smith, "Putin to Rule Russia Even After Leaving Kremlin: Ally," AFP, Oct. 17, 2007). Putin will apparently seek the leadership of the dominant party (United Russia) in the Dec. 2 parliamentary elections. The party is assured a bruising majority in the Duma; as party leader, Putin would then become the speaker of the Duma. "As a speaker, he can suggest that the incumbent president (he himself) nominates the leader of the majority party as premier (likely also Putin)" (Angelique van Engelen, "Putin's Russian Roulette," Global Politician, Oct. 25, 2007, globalpolitician.com). So, in preparation for the March 2008 presidential elections, Putin will step down from the presidency; run for parliament (the Duma); "suggest to himself" that he choose himself to be premier and acting president until the new president is elected; a brief time after the new president (presumably Zubkov) takes office, the president would resign, appointing Putin to the presidency again; then there could be a snap presidential election in which Putin can run "legitimately"! Confused? While strange to Western thinking (to say the least!), analysts say that this will not seem out of place to the Russian electorate. Putin is Russia It's important that there's a high turnout in the December parliamentary elections. Low numbers would weaken his claim to the helm, whereas a large vote would justify his using the office of speaker of the Duma to retain the leadership of the country. At a national convention of Russia's mayors in October, Putin promised them a greater share of regional tax revenues as an incentive to get out the vote in their cities. Opposition parties immediately protested that Putin was abusing his position to solicit support, but the head of the Central Election Commission quickly dismissed the charges. The fix is in, if the schemers have their way. Of course, God ultimately determines or allows leaders to take and hold power (Psalm 75). And, in the words of the King Nebuchadnezzar, "The Most High rules in the kingdom of men, gives it to whomever He will, and sets over it the lowest of men" (Daniel 4:17). Only weeks ago, the head of the United Russia party unambiguously declared in a front-page article of the government newspaper, Rossiiskaya Gazeta, "Vladimir Putin will remain national leader, regardless of the post that he holds. Modern Russia: this is Putin. Russia without Putin: this is a Russia without leadership." The Russian psyche still seethes in anger at losing the Cold War to the United States. Prophecy indicates a lingering antagonism by Russia toward America and its brother nations. We see this playing out daily in today's news. To better understand these crucial national relationships, request or download our free booklet The United States and Britain in Bible Prophecy. Russia still has serious economic problems, in spite of a treasury bursting with oil and gas revenues. But Moscow has been able to get its citizens to look past the problems simply by launching into patriotic, anti-American rhetoric. Far beyond mere political obstructionism, Russia is in a position to give the United States, as well as Western Europe, a great deal of grief. The EU is highly dependent upon Russian natural gas. And as the world's leading producer of oil, Russia holds considerable clout over the global economy. Growing anti-Western hostility In "Putin's Hostile Course," The Washington Post published the following on Oct. 18, 2007: "Indeed, at virtually every turn, Mr. Putin and the Russian leadership appear to be doing their best in ways large and small to marginalize and embarrass the United States and undercut U.S. foreign policy interests." Putin humiliated U.S. Secretary of State Rice and Defense Secretary Gates by forcing them to wait 40 minutes before meeting with them in October; in a TV appearance immediately after the meeting, Putin slammed U.S. plans to deploy a missile defense radar system in the Czech Republic and Patriot missiles in Poland, claiming that America was launching a new arms race. Yet Russia has been dealing arms as it did in the Cold War days, selling an air defense missile system to Syria and providing Hezbollah with antitank missiles that it used against Israel in the recent war. Putin has also announced Russia's eagerness to reenter the world market as a supplier of military aircraft. He is threatening to pull Russia from the treaty that barred nuclear missiles from Europe and another that limited the level of military forces between the Baltic and Black Seas. Nominally in retaliation for the U.S. proposal to place 10 Patriot missiles in Poland (an anti-missile system for protecting Europe from an Iranian missile attack), Putin is threatening to retarget Russia's nuclear missiles at Europe. In open defiance of American and Western opinion, Putin publicly declared Russia doesn't view either Hezbollah or Hamas as terrorist organizations. And on a recent trip to Tehran, he backed the Iranians' right to develop "peaceful nuclear energy," lending cover to Tehran's thinly disguised end run toward the nuclear weapons club. During that same Iranian trip, Putin warned the United States not to develop energy pipelines through one of the former Soviet republics on the Caspian Sea. Washington (and, likely, the EU) would like to secure access to the region's vast oil and gas reserves without having to transit Russian territory. With Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he announced that all five Caspian states had to agree before any energy pipeline could be implemented. A joint Russian-Chinese military exercise was held in conjunction with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) last August. SCO members include Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. At the time of the exercise, Russian newspapers ran articles calling the SCO an "anti-NATO alliance" and a "Warsaw Pact 2," although Putin downplayed the idea. Reportedly, Washington's requests to attend the SCO sessions as an observer have been denied. Iran's president, on the other hand has twice been invited as a guest of honor; Iran would like to join the alliance, which has a NATO-like pact of, "Attack one of us, and you attack us all." That would significantly raise the ante in any possible military action by the United States against Iran. While Putin is increasingly unhinged in his rhetoric, China isn't yet willing to growl at Washington. The Chinese have their own agenda of becoming an economic superpower and need the American markets for now. Russia misses the superpower influence it once wielded on the world stage, and it will blunt the edge of America's policies anywhere it can. Vladimir Putin has become a master at it, and it looks as though he will continue in this role for the foreseeable future. WNP
Vladimir Putin
anti-Western
Communism
Cold War
United States
Russia
Europe
Asia
World Regions
Governments
News and Prophecy

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