The World's Number One Exporting Nation

Sep 3, 2005
8 minutes read time

The United States owes its historical dominance to being the world's biggest exporting nation. It no longer holds that position. The country that does is set to play a more dominant role in world affairs.

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My local newspaper, the Lansing State Journal, has been running a series of articles from Associated Press, under the collective heading "Drowning in Debt." The articles have been looking at the massive amounts of debt in the United States, both personal and governmental. No country in the history of the world has ever had so much debt. The potential consequences, as the articles show, are horrendous. It is difficult to see how America can remain the world's sole superpower with its finances in such disarray. Debt has been a major contributory factor in the decline of other great powers in history. The question now is: Who will replace the United States as the dominant economic power? Go back a couple of centuries and Great Britain was the "workshop of the world." As the greatest exporter and investor, Britain was rapidly on the rise to world ascendancy. The British Empire, largely a mercantile empire, dominated the world for the best part of 200 years. In the late 19th century it was clear that Britain's economy was in decline. A number of nations were growing more rapidly than it was. A century ago Germany and the United States were both rapidly challenging the United Kingdom for global economic dominance. Germany's rise was thwarted twice by two world wars in the first half of the 20th century. At the end of the second global conflict, the United States emerged as the dominant economic power. The country was by far the biggest producer and exporter of goods, just as Britain had been before her. But the United States has been in relative decline ever since, gradually losing out to other nations that have annually taken a bigger piece of the global pie. Although the United States is still a big exporter, it exports very few manufactured goods—America's exports today are mostly high-technology items, food and entertainment. Realizing that both Britain's and America's rise to global power and dominance owed much to their being, in turn, the world's biggest exporting nations, a reliable indicator of the identity of the next global superpower must be its record on exports. With this in mind, most people would assume China must be the world's next superpower. China has become a major exporter in recent years, with Chinese goods for sale almost everywhere. But, surprisingly, China is not the world's biggest exporting nation! Nor is the United States. That particular accolade belongs to Germany, which last year regained its status as the biggest single exporting nation in the world ("Germany's Surprising Economy," The Economist, Aug. 20, 2005). Germany held this position a few years ago, but lost it as the country weathered the storms that followed the rise of the euro, making it harder for Europeans to export their products overseas. But German manufacturers have a reputation for producing high-quality merchandise, and they have once again reached the number one position as the world's biggest exporter. With a population of just over 80 million, Germany exports more than America, with almost 300 million people. What does this mean for the United States and other countries? Global reach Consider this: Germany is not just the world's biggest exporting nation. It is also the dominant nation of the 25-country European Union (EU). The EU is the world's biggest single market, bigger than the United States. It also accounts for more than half of all the world's trade. That gives the EU incredible clout around the world. I was reminded of the EU's dominance in August when making a regular visit to the African nation of Ghana. In August our churches there have their annual summer camp. Most of the teens who attend are Ghanaians, but there are also some from Nigeria and neighboring Togo, a French-speaking sliver of a country that lies to the east of Ghana. Togo is one of 14 former French colonies in West Africa that share a common currency, the CFA (Centrale Franque D'Afrique). The currency is controlled by the Bank of Paris and was tied to the French franc. As the French franc no longer exists, it is effectively tied to the euro. The English-speaking countries in the region have had major problems with paper money ever since independence almost 50 years ago. They are trying to start their own common currency. Inevitably, it must also be tied to the euro, for the very simple reason that most of their trade is with the EU, not the United States, even though English is their language of commerce. Many American churches and aid organizations receive their support in dollars; but the goods they buy are from Europe, which means they are paying more out as the euro rises, but receiving less as the dollar declines. It's quite a dilemma for poor countries. It will become a lot worse if oil is priced in euros, an idea that has been proposed from time to time by different oil-exporting nations. It's likely only a matter of time until this happens. When it does, America could have a sharp price hike to deal with, based on current exchange rates and the declining international demand for dollars that would follow. The United States will have to dramatically increase its exports if it is to deal with this. As the series in my local newspaper has shown, it is difficult to see how America can maintain preeminence with the serious economic problems that are mounting. This means, inevitably, that just as Britain was replaced by the United States as the number one power, so America will, in turn, be replaced. Could Germany be the next superpower? Considering that Germany is the engine that pulls the EU train, an EU led by Germany certainly has the potential to replace the United States as the dominant power. Although the EU is the world's biggest single market, the United States remains the world's biggest single national economy with a greater GNP than any other. Japan is in second place. Often overlooked is the fact that the next four countries are all members of the EU—Germany, Britain, France and Italy, in that order. Canada is in seventh place. It should also be pointed out that, apart from Britain, which does roughly as much trade with the United States as with Germany, all the other 23 nations of the EU count Germany as their number one trading partner. If this had been the case at the start of World War II, it's likely the outcome of the conflict would have been quite different, since trade is a big factor in determining alliances. How can a nation oppose the country it depends on for most of its trade? There's an additional advantage that Germany has over the United States. Whereas Americans are heavily indebted, Germans are not. A recent article in the Financial Times highlighted the reluctance of Germans to use credit cards, which account for only 5 percent of purchases ("German Banks Count Cost of Life in a Credit-Free Zone," Financial Times, July 19, 2005). Credit cards are a major reason for American indebtedness, encouraging people to spend between 12 to 18 percent more than they would if using cash, according to financial expert David Ramsey (60 Minutes, Aug. 28, 2005). Whereas the United States is the world's biggest debtor nation, Germany is one of the top three creditor nations, a good position to be in to weather any future economic upheaval such as a collapse of the U.S. financial system. The coming economic Babylon Many Bible students understand that, prior to the second coming of Jesus Christ, 10 kings (leaders) will unite to form the final revival of the Beast power system that features prominently in the biblical books of Daniel and Revelation. In Daniel 7 the vision the Old Testament prophet received showed the Babylonian, Medo-Persian, Greek and Roman Empires in rapid succession, each succeeding the other in time. Daniel received his vision in the sixth century B.C., but the prophesied gentile empires were to dominate the world through the centuries leading eventually to the establishment of the Kingdom of God. The Roman Empire, which we believe to be the "fourth beast," was prophesied to be "dreadful and terrible, exceedingly strong . . ." (Daniel 7:7). It was to have "ten horns" (verse 7), revivals of the Roman Empire, which would continue down to Christ's return, predicted in verse 9. Revelation, the last book of the Bible, shows that the final revival of the Roman Empire will immediately precede the return of Jesus Christ. "The ten horns which you saw are ten kings who have received no kingdom as yet, but they receive authority for one hour as kings with the beast . . . These will make war with the Lamb, and the Lamb will overcome them, for He is Lord of lords and King of kings" (Revelation 17:12, 14). It is impossible for any nation or group of nations to have this kind of power without first achieving economic superiority. Revelation 18 predicts that these nations will be the nucleus of an international financial system. When it, in turn, collapses, "the merchants of these things, who became rich by her, will stand at a distance for fear of her torment, weeping and wailing" (verse 15). The European Union is already the world's biggest trading system, increasingly threatening America's global interests. Germany is the dominant nation of the EU. Look for Germany to play an increasing role in world affairs in the years ahead. WNP
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Melvin Rhodes

Melvin Rhodes is a member of the United Church of God congregation in Lansing, Michigan.