In Brief...World News Review The Intensification of Global Instability

This is a time of destabilization in the world.

Colombia has fallen deeper into the ranks of the unstable with the outbreak of civil war. Iran appears to be moving toward internal crisis, Venezuela's political problems are deepening and conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is entering a new phase. This troubling spread of instability is rooted in the current structure of the international system. As the world's only superpower, the United States' inevitable obsession with al Qaeda has contributed to this process of destabilization.

Consider these recent events, in no particular order:

•Venezuela, a major oil producer, is experiencing a major political crisis over its president, Hugo Chavez.
•In Afghanistan, the CIA has issued a report warning that internal chaos is looming.
•In the Middle East, Palestinians have shifted tactics toward waging guerrilla war, and Israel is contemplating a major shift in its own strategy.
•In Iran, a majority of the Majlis has signed a petition demanding an investigation of U.S. charges that elements in Iran have aided al Qaeda members in escaping Afghanistan. This action creates a massive internal confrontation between forces around the Ayatollah Ali Khameni and those around President Mohammad Khatami, with a very uncertain outcome.
•What has emerged from U.S. President George W. Bush's meeting with the Japanese prime minister is that Japan has no idea how to manage its intensifying financial crisis. One of the world's major economies appears to be inching toward meltdown.

Add these to the U.S. war on al Qaeda, the India-Pakistan confrontation, the Iraqi crisis, the ongoing Balkans puzzle, the Argentine default and the rest. Clearly, the destabilization process is intensifying and spreading. The instability can be found on each continent and in all possible areas. The world has always been a dangerous place. The 1990s represented an interregnum in which it appeared that the end of the Cold War had ushered in a new, more stable world.

In a very few years, we have moved from a world in which it appeared that most crises were marginal and easily contained, to a situation where marginal crises cannot be contained and not all crises are marginal. Meanwhile, other regions are falling into chaos. The United States is intruding in a wide range of countries on an unpredictable basis, built around al Qaeda's behavior. This is creating unintended tensions and consequences. Countries and issues that are not directly tied to the war are receiving limited attention, regardless of potential consequences.

Throughout history the solution to instability has been the imposition of order by a great power in competition with other great powers. However, the United States today does not compete with any great power, but is at war with an international network. Unconstrained by other powers and driven by its war, the United States inevitably destabilizes some countries, lacks the interest or resources to stabilize other countries and creates opportunities for destabilization by other powers. —Source: Stratfor